safe.impact_functions.earthquake.itb_earthquake_fatality_model.impact_function module

InaSAFE Disaster risk tool by Australian Aid - ITB Earthquake Impact Function on Population.

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This program is free software; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation; either version 2 of the License, or (at your option) any later version.

class safe.impact_functions.earthquake.itb_earthquake_fatality_model.impact_function.ITBFatalityFunction[source]

Bases: safe.impact_functions.bases.continuous_rh_continuous_re.ContinuousRHContinuousRE, safe.impact_reports.population_exposure_report_mixin.PopulationExposureReportMixin

Indonesian Earthquake Fatality Model.

This model was developed by Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB) and implemented by Dr. Hadi Ghasemi, Geoscience Australia.


Indonesian Earthquake Building-Damage and Fatality Models and Post Disaster Survey Guidelines Development, Bali, 27-28 February 2012, 54pp.


In this study, the same functional form as Allen (2009) is adopted to express fatality rate as a function of intensity (see Eq. 10 in the report). The Matlab built-in function (fminsearch) for Nelder-Mead algorithm was used to estimate the model parameters. The objective function (L2G norm) that is minimised during the optimisation is the same as the one used by Jaiswal et al. (2010).

The coefficients used in the indonesian model are x=0.62275231, y=8.03314466, zeta=2.15

Allen, T. I., Wald, D. J., Earle, P. S., Marano, K. D., Hotovec, A. J., Lin, K., and Hearne, M., 2009. An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling, Bull. Earthq. Eng. 7, 701-718.

Jaiswal, K., and Wald, D., 2010. An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation, Earthq. Spectra 26, 1017-1037.

Caveats and limitations:

The current model is the result of the above mentioned workshop and reflects the best available information. However, the current model has a number of issues listed below and is expected to evolve further over time.

1 - The model is based on limited number of observed fatality
rates during 4 past fatal events.
2 - The model clearly over-predicts the fatality rates at
intensities higher than VIII.
3 - The model only estimates the expected fatality rate for a given
intensity level; however the associated uncertainty for the proposed model is not addressed.
4 - There are few known mistakes in developing the current model:
  • rounding MMI values to the nearest 0.5,
  • Implementing Finite-Fault models of candidate events, and
  • consistency between selected GMPEs with those in use by BMKG. These issues will be addressed by ITB team in the final report.

Note: Because of these caveats, decisions should not be made solely on the information presented here and should always be verified by ground truthing and other reliable information sources.


Action checklist for the itb earthquake fatality report.

Returns:The action checklist
Return type:list

ITB method to compute fatality rate.


Indonesian Earthquake Fatality Model.